译者 王为
文中黑字部分为原文，蓝字部分为译文，红字部分为译者注释或补充说明Will the inverted yield curve lead to recession?
Historically, this has often been the case. But this time may be different.
历史上确是如此，但这次可能会不一样。
The US Treasury yield curve, specifically the spread between the 10-year US Treasury rate and the 2-year US Treasury rate, briefly inverted on the morning of Aug. 14. As of early afternoon, the spread was roughly 1 to 2 basis points wide. The brief inversion follows the inversions earlier this year between the spread of short-term rates (such as the federal funds rate and the 3-month Treasury bill) and the benchmark 10-year rate.
美国国债收益率曲线，具体来说就是10年期和2年期美国国债收益率之间的利差在8月14日美国时间上午交易时段出现了短暂地倒挂，到了下午交易时段刚开盘时利差的幅度约为1-2个基本点。继今年早些时候10年期美国国债收益率和短期利率（如联邦基金利率和3个月美国国债收益率）之间的利差出现倒挂后，这次轮到10年期和2年期美国国债收益率之间的利差短暂倒挂了。
The equity market immediately sold off due to fears of a looming recession — of all the macro indicators, the bond market has tended to get it right more often than most others. Case in point: An inverted yield curve that lasts for a prolonged period (not briefly in one morning!) has preceded seven of the past nine recessions.1 And in those seven time periods, the US economy tipped into a recession 22 months following the inversion, on average.1 Interestingly, stocks, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, have been positive, on average, in the 12 months following the yield curve inversion.
美国股市在国债收益率曲线倒挂后立即开始下跌，因市场担心美国经济即将陷入衰退，在预测未来经济走势方面，债券市场以往通常比其他市场更准确。典型的例子是，在过去9次经济衰退发生之前，美国国债收益率曲线曾7次出现长时间的倒挂。在这7个案例中，经济实际陷入衰退的时点滞后于美国国债收益率曲线倒挂的时间间隔平均为22个月。有意思的是，在美国国债收益率曲线出现倒挂后平均12个月里，以标准普尔500指数为代表的美国股市的回报率是正的。
[h2]What is our take on the situation?[/h2]对此我们的观点是什么？
We would caution investors from assuming that the brief inversion of the yield curve is bound to lead to a forthcoming recession. Business cycles typically end with policy mistakes. In most instances, the policy mistake has been the US Federal Reserve (Fed) over-aggressively raising short-term interest rates to lessen inflationary pressures and/or curb excesses. Importantly, the recessions tend to be preceded by the Federal Open Market Committee raising the federal funds rate above the 10-year Treasury rate — not by the 10-year rate falling below the 2-year rate after the Fed has already completed its tightening cycle.It might be more constructive to consider periods such as the mid-1980s and mid-1990s. In the mid-1990s, the yield curve briefly inverted, and the Fed countered by keeping rates generally stable over the following four years. This year, the Fed has already lowered interest rates to begin undoing the rate increases/potential policy mistakes of 2018.
需要提醒投资者注意的是，不要以为国债收益率曲线的短暂倒挂一定会意味着未来经济将陷入衰退。一个经济周期终结之时通常会伴随着政策失误。在大多数情况下，政策失误之处在于美联储过于激进地提升短期利率以减轻通胀压力及降低过多的存款储备金。重要的是，在经济衰退发生之前往往会见到美联储公开市场委员会将联邦基金利率的水平加到10年期美国国债收益率之上，而不是10年期美国国债收益率的水平在美联储的加息周期已终结后跌至2年期国债收益率之下。回顾一下1980年代中期和1990年代中期的情况有可能有一些帮助。在1990年代中期，美国国债收益率曲线也曾短暂倒挂，当时美联储采取的应对措施是在其后四年里将利率水平保持在总体上稳定的状态。今年，美联储已经开始降息以消除其在2018年加息带来的潜在负面影响。
In this instance, long rates briefly rallied below the 2-year Treasury rate as the ongoing uncertainty of the US-China trade conflict has been eroding sentiment and slowing business investment. Importantly, protectionism, in and of itself, has historically led to inefficient economic outcomes, but not necessarily recessions. Rather, it’s the uncertainty surrounding the future trade guidelines that has been grinding investment to a halt. In simplistic terms, it is difficult for businesses to plan when they do not know the rules of the game.
在这种情况下，长期利率的水平短暂地跌至2年期美国国债收益率之下，因当前中美贸易摩擦带来的不确定性导致投资者情绪受损和企业投资放缓。重要的是，贸易保护主义就其本身而言在历史上导致的是经济效益低下，但并不一定是经济衰退。贸易保护主义带来的是在制定未来的贸易准则方面存在不确定性，导致投资出现停滞。简而言之，商界在不知道游戏规则的情况下很难做规划。
In Figure 1, we highlight the weakness in business investment growth, as represented by capital goods orders, as business confidence wavers.
图1显示以资本货物订单为代表的美国商业投资增速在商界信心减弱后出现放缓。
[h3]Figure 1: C-suite confidence has been falling, but is not yet at the 2016 low[/h3]CEO Confidence Index: Confidence in the Economy 1 Year from Now Vs. U.S. Capital Goods New Orders Nondefense Excluding Aircrafts & Parts
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Sources: Chief Executive Magazine, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg L.P., 7/31/19. The CEO Confidence Index is a monthly survey of chief executives. Each month, Chief Executive Magazine surveys CEOs across corporate America, at organizations of all types and sizes, to compile and create an index.
In Figure 2, we highlight the weakness in the ISM Manufacturing Production Index, a leading indicator of future economic activity (below 50 signals contraction), as capital goods orders have fallen.
图2显示的是作为衡量未来经济活动的先行经济指标的美国供应商协会制造业生产指数（低于50 意味着经济衰退）走弱，因资本货物订单出现下降。
[h3]Figure 2: Growth in capital goods orders has been negative, pointing toward further weakness in production[/h3]US Capital Goods New Orders — Nondefense (Ex-Aircrafts & Parts) and ISM Manufacturing Production Index
November 1990 through July 2019
Sources: Institute for Supply Management, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bloomberg L.P., 6/30/19.
In our view, a silver lining for investors is that the US’ current troubles are largely self-inflicted, the lagged result of last year’s Fed tightening and the lack of clarity on trade from the Trump administration. The Fed has already backed off its tightening stance. All eyes are now on the administration, as we believe there is still time to intervene in this slow-motion accident and avoid a recession.
我们的观点是，对于投资者来说困境中的一线希望是，美国当前的困难是自己造成的，是去年美联储紧缩货币以及特朗普政权的贸易政策缺乏明确指向的结果。联储已经从紧缩货币的政策立场上后撤，如今所有的目光均注视着特朗普政权的一举一动，因为我们认为还来得及处理尚未急转直下的局面并避免经济衰退发生。
[h2]What are the investment implications?[/h2]对投资有何影响？
Market downturns tend to commence with policy uncertainty. In the near-term, longer duration bonds, lower volatility strategies, and the more-defensive equity sectors may outperform, in our view.
市场行情的下行通常是从政策不确定开始。我们认为从近期来看，长久期债券、低波动率的投资策略以及更具有防御性的股票板块可能会跑赢大市。
Ultimately, we believe that a more-significant drawdown would likely lead to US policymakers acting to counteract the effects of the current trade conflict. In our view, “winning” the trade conflict with China is very unlikely, and we hold out hope that the US will recognize this. This may prompt the administration to capitulate and avoid further self-inflicted damage, perhaps by accepting a deal with only minor concessions from China. We would also expect the Fed to respond accordingly with further interest rate cuts and other policy accommodations.
最后，我们认为金融市场行情如果出现更大幅度的回撤有可能会导致美国的决策者们采取行动来消除当前贸易冲突带来的负面效应。在我们看来，在对华贸易战中“取胜”是很难的，我们希望美国最终将认识到这一点，这将促使美国政府早日放弃贸易战并避免自残式伤害，也许应该达成意向中方只是稍有让步的贸易协议。我们也希望美联储未来会进一步降息并出台其他货币宽松举措。
In this environment, we believe the probability of recession has increased, but our base case remains that we are in a slowing-growth environment with monetary policy largely accommodative globally. Typically, that has been a positive backdrop for secular growth companies and credit. Importantly, we note that thus far, US credit markets have largely behaved, and the US dollar has not strengthened meaningfully. We view both as favorable for investors, and we believe that the volatility is likely to create opportunities for selective, discerning investors.
在当前的市场状况下，我们认为美国经济陷入衰退的可能性在上升，但我们的基本观点仍认为当前美国经济正处于慢速增长之中，全球货币政策仍以宽松为主。通常，这种大环境对长期稳定增长的公司和信用债来说是有利的。重要的是，我们看到截至目前为止，美国信用债市场已经有了很大的波动，而美元汇率却没有明显的走强。我们认为这两点均利好投资者，对于有选择和鉴别能力的投资者来讲市场行情的波动应意味着难得的投资良机。
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