重磅突发!刚刚,伊朗放大招,战争风险进一步加大!

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50ETF期权论坛   2020-1-8 00:34   4554   0

来源:天涯时事



昨天我们刚和大家说到伊朗和美国发生大规模战争的可能性非常小,但是有一种情况却例外:伊朗宣布退出《伊朗核协议》。
一旦伊朗退出《伊核协议》,继续寻求制造核武器,那么以色列就有可能对伊朗进行空袭,破坏伊核设施。如果局势发展到那一步,那么伊朗必然要对以色列宣战,一场大战将不可避免!昨天,伊朗终于宣布:伊朗将不再遵守2015年伊核协议的任何限制。

伊朗政府的声明如下:


伊朗在中止履行伊核协议的第五阶段中,放弃了最后一个限制,即“离心机数量的限制”。因此,伊朗的核计划将不再受到任何限制(包括浓缩能力,浓缩百分比,浓缩物质的数量和研发),并且从现在开始,伊朗的核计划将继续按照伊朗的核计划技术要求进行推进。
伊朗与国际原子能机构的合作将像以前一样继续进行。如果取消制裁,并且满足伊朗的利益,那么伊朗将准备恢复履行伊核协议。伊朗原子能组织必须在伊朗总统的协调下采取必要的措施和做法。

在这段声明中有两个核心要点:

第一,伊朗很可能继续增加离心机数量。

第二,伊朗并没有关闭对话的大门,如果美国取消制裁,伊朗将继续遵守伊核协议。


可以预料的是,特朗普不太可能取消制裁,所以伊朗继续增加离心机的数量几乎已成定局。一旦大幅度增加离心机的数量增加,那么伊朗离核武器就更进一步了,以色列冒险空袭伊朗的可能就非常大了。
为了便于大家更加搞懂其中的逻辑,我们就需要给大家解释下面四个重要问题:
1、为什么说伊朗增加离心机的数量就离核武器更进一步了?离心机到底是什么,有什么作用?

2、为什么世界都不希望伊朗拥有核武器?
3、当初千辛万苦才让伊朗放弃制造核武器,特朗普为什么要退出《伊核协议》?特朗普退出《伊核协议》到底算不算违背契约精神?
4、为什么伊朗重启离心机后以色列可能会对伊朗发动战争?

我们先给大家说说离心机对核武器的重要性?

其实核武器的原理非常的简单,它就和制造常规炸弹的原理差不多。

制造常规炸弹最重要的部分就是提炼出炸药,有了炸药以后,把一些铁球、铁钉和炸药混合在一起,裹紧以后,加上引信,就成了一个炸弹。

在这个过程中,“炸药”是最关键。
只要制造出炸药,后面的事情就非常简单了。

原子弹的“炸药”就是“铀235”。
原子弹爆炸的原理就是:利用中子轰击铀235,由于铀235非常不稳定,当中子打到铀235上的时候,铀235就再会释放一个中子和大量的能量。释放出来的中子又去轰炸其它的铀235……


原子弹被引爆后,在很短的时间内释放出巨大的能量,造成极其严重的破坏。
在普通人看来,原子弹很恐怖,好像一颗原子弹就能毁灭一个国家、毁灭地球一样。
事实上,不是这样的!
原子弹的威力是很大,但是没有大家想象的那么大。
由于存在临界质量,原子弹的最大当量只有50万吨左右——这个我们就不展开了,有兴趣的朋友可以自己去百度下,自然明白了。
威力真正强大的是氢弹,而想要制造氢弹就必须要有原子弹,因为只有原子弹才能引爆氢弹。
下面的图就是不同当量的核弹(注意不是原子弹)杀伤半径和杀伤面积:100万吨当量的原子弹,杀伤半径为6.93公里;300万吨当量的原子弹,杀伤半径为10公里;1000万吨当量的原子弹,杀伤半径为14.93公里……


大家注意:核弹的当量和杀伤面积不成正比关系:100万吨当量的核弹杀伤面积为150平方公里,1000万吨当量的核弹杀伤面积为700平方公里——当量增加10倍,杀伤面积增加不足5倍。
上面这个数据还是针对没有任何遮挡的数据,如果有建筑物、高山等阻挡,杀伤半径要更小。

根据网络上的公开的资料,以100万吨级核弹为例,它对躲在不同隐蔽物后面的人员的杀伤半径如下(单位公里):一颗100万吨的核弹爆炸,在坚固建筑后的人员在4公里外不会送命,在坦克内的人员在3公里外就不会受到伤害,而地铁内人员只要在8-900米外就能躲过一劫……


现在的城市基本都是钢筋混凝土结构,非常的坚固,一颗100万吨当量的原子弹杀伤半径也就是3-4公里。
在钢筋混凝土结构的城市里,100万吨当量的核弹杀伤面积为33平方公里,日本的总面积为37万平方公里,所以理论上来说,要把日本整个国家轰炸一遍,至少需要1万颗100万吨当量的核弹。
这就是为什么美国和苏联都制造大量原子弹的主要原因:俄罗斯有2万枚原子弹,美国有1.5万枚原子弹。
虽然原子弹的威力没有想象的那么大,但是也是远超常规武器的。如果在人口比较集中的城市里爆炸,造成的人员伤害也是非常惊人的。
这段说的有点多了,也是对核武器的一个简单普及吧。

我们继续上面的话题。
想要制造原子弹,就必须要获得高纯度的铀235。
地球的铀矿里只有0.7%是铀235,剩下的都是铀238。
制造核电站核燃料的话,铀235的纯度要达到3.5%以上即可,但制造核武器则需要80%-90%。
把铀矿里面的铀提取出来相对容易点,但是要把铀235提炼出来就非常困难了,因为铀235和铀238混合在一起,它们化学特征和物理特征都差不多,很难把它们分离开来。
或许有人会问:铀235和铀238混合在一起就不能制造原子弹了吗?
不能!

前面我们说过:原子弹爆炸的原理是用中子轰击铀235,然后再释放一个中子去轰击其它铀235,然后再释放中子去轰击其它铀235……但是如果有铀238存在的话,当中子轰击在铀238上,铀238就会把轰击它的中子给“吃掉”,形成一个稳定的物质铀239。
所以,如果原子弹中含有大量的铀238的话,那么威力会非常的小。
比如,印度的原子弹当量就很低。
印度原子弹的最大当量为20万吨,而装载在核弹头上的,一般为2-5万吨,杀伤半径比较小,在2公里左右。
想要制造原子弹就必须要把铀235和铀238给分离出来,铀235的浓度要达到80-90%以上。
由于铀235和铀238的物理和化学性质非常的相似,想要分离它们非常的困难,但是也并非毫无办法。
铀235和铀238相差3个中子,它们在质量上还是有微弱的差别的,所以可以用气体扩散法和离心法把它们分离出来。
简单说下这两种方法的原理。
假设我们把二氧化碳和氧气两种气体混合在一起,由于二氧化碳的质量比氧气要大,所以很快二氧化碳就聚集在底部——这就是为什么在CO2气井发生泄露的时候,人要往高处走的主要原因。

由于铀235和铀238质量有微弱的区别,所以把它们气化以后,铀235由于质量比较轻就会在上部聚集,这样就能把它们分离出来了。
大家可以看下面的示意图:


另外一种方法,叫做离心法。

这个也有一个简单的例子:大家在洗衣服的时候,把大件的衣服和小件的衣服放在一起仍到洗衣机里面,然后洗衣机开始转动,到最后大件的衣服都在外层和底部,小件的衣服都在内层和上部。

通过离心法,密度较大的铀238就被甩到了外层和下部,铀235留在更靠中心的上部。通过采集靠近中心的上层气体,就可以得到浓度较高的铀235了。


目前制造核武器提纯铀235主要就是采取离心法,这就需要离心机!
由于铀235和铀238差异实在太小了,所以需要大量的离心机进行反复的提纯。
2015年的时候,伊朗与伊核问题六国(美国、英国、法国、俄罗斯、中国和德国)达成伊朗核问题全面协议,其中最重要的一条就是:伊朗把离心机的数量削减三分之二,从约1.9万台减少至6104台。


现在大家知道伊朗增加离心机意味着什么吧?
意味着伊朗提纯铀235的速度将会大大的加快,离核武器的距离也越来越近。那么就又出现一个重要问题:为什么大家都不希望伊朗拥有核武器?如果伊朗拥有核武器,那么中东就会成为这个世界上最强大的“极”之一。大家可以想想,如果伊朗拥有核武器了,那么美国和以色列就不敢对伊朗动武,那么伊朗就可以更加毫无顾忌的做自己想做的事情——称霸中东。
如何称霸中东?

威胁以色列!
伊朗曾是鼎鼎有名的波斯帝国,也是有一个大国梦的。但是由于伊朗是波斯人,很难和阿拉伯人融合到一起,所以伊朗想要成为中东地区的领导者只能为阿拉伯人出头:对付以色列!以色列是犹太人,信仰犹太教,与伊斯兰教是死敌,而且以色列抢占了巴勒斯坦的土地,所以阿拉伯人恨以色列人要远超波斯人!

169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting.     克莱因瓶是一个不可定向的二维紧流形,而球面或轮胎面是可 克莱因瓶 克莱因瓶 定向的二维紧流形。如果观察克莱因瓶,有一点似乎令人困惑--克莱因瓶的瓶颈和瓶身是相交的,换句话说,瓶颈上的某些点和瓶壁上的某些点占据了三维空间中的同一个位置。我们可以把克莱因瓶放在四维空间中理解:克莱因瓶是一个在四维空间中才可能真正表现出来的曲面。如果我们一定要把它表现在我们生活的三维空间中,我们只好将就点,把它表现得似乎是自己和自己相交一样。克莱因瓶的瓶颈是穿过了第四维空间再和瓶底圈连起来的,并不穿过瓶壁。用扭结来打比方,如果把它看作平面上的曲线的话,那么它似乎自身相交,再一看似乎又断成了三截。但其实很容易明白,这个图形其实是三维空间中的曲线。它并不和自己相交,而是连续不断的一条曲线。在平面上一条曲线自然做不到这样,但是如果有第三维的话,它就可以穿过第三维来避开和自己相交。只是因为我们要把它画在二维平面上时,只好将就一点,把它画成相交或者断裂了的样子。克莱因瓶也一样,我们可以把它理解成处于四维空间中的曲面。在我们这个三维空间中,即使是最高明的能工巧匠,也不得不把它做成自身相交的模样;就好像最高明的画家,在纸上画扭结的时候也不得不把它们画成自身相交的模样。有趣的是,如果把克莱因瓶沿着它的对称线切下去,竟会得到两个莫比乌斯环。在二维看似穿过自身的绳子 在二维看似穿过自身的绳子 如果莫比乌斯带能够完美的展现一个“二维空间中一维可无限扩展之空间模型”的话,克莱因瓶只能作为展现一个“三维空间中二维可无限扩展之空间模型”的参考。因为在制作莫比乌斯带的过程中,我们要对纸带进行180°翻转再首尾相连,这就是一个三维空间下的操作。理想的“三维空间中二维可无限扩展之空间模型”应该是在二维面中,朝任意方向前进都可以回到原点的模型,而克莱因瓶虽然在二维面上可以向任意方向无限前进。但是只有在两个特定的方向上才会回到原点,并且只有在其中一个方向上,回到原点之前会经过一个“逆向原点”,真正理想的“三维空间中二维可无限扩展之空间模型”也应该是在二维面上朝任何方向前进,都会先经过一次“逆向原点”,再回到原点。而制作这个模型,则需要在四维空间上对三维模型进行扭曲。数学中有一个重要分支叫“拓扑学”,主要是研究几何图形连续改变形状时的一些特征和规律的,克莱因瓶和莫比乌斯带变成了拓扑学中最有趣的问题之一。莫比乌斯带的概念被广泛地应用到了建筑,艺术,工业生产中。三维空间里的克莱因瓶 拓扑学的定义编辑 克莱因瓶定义为正方形区域 [0,1]×[0,1] 模掉等价关系(0,y)~(1,y), 0≤y≤1 和 (x,0)~(1-x,1), 0≤x≤1。类似于 Mobius Band, 克莱因瓶不可定向。但 Mobius 带可嵌入  阳系里的所有天体牢牢地吸引在它的周围,使它们不离不散、井然有序地绕自己旋转。同时,太阳又作为一颗普通恒星,带领它的成员,万古不息地绕银河系的中心运动。[39]  太阳的半径为696000千米,质量为1.989×10^30kg,中心温度约15000000 ℃,。[40]  如果一个人站在太阳表面,那么他的体重将会是在地球上的20倍。[41]  现代星云假说根据观测资料和理论计算,提出:太阳系原始星云是巨大的星际云瓦解的一个小云,一开始就在自转,并在自身引力作用下收缩,中心部分形成太阳,外部演化成星云盘,星云盘以后形成行星。目前,现代星云说又存在不同学派,这些学派之间还存在着许多差别,有待进一步研究和证实。[42] 金星是离太阳的第二颗行星,夜空中亮度仅次于月球。[43]  金星上没有水,大气中严重缺氧,二氧化碳占97%以上,空气中有一层厚达20千米至30千米的浓硫酸云,地面温度从不低于400℃,是个名副其实的“炼狱”般世界。金星地面的大气压强为地球的90倍,相当于地球海洋中900米深度时的压强。金星大气主要由二氧化碳等温室气体组成,失控的温室效应,是导致金星极端气候的主要原因。由于金星没有内禀磁层保护,诱发磁层中磁场重联释放的巨大能量,使得金星大气被加热后加速逃逸。科学界认为,金星上大气的逃逸,是造成金星上缺水而被富含二氧化碳的稠密大气所笼罩,从而导致严重的温室效应的原因。[44] 木星是离太阳第五颗行星,而且是最大的一颗,比所有其他的行星 木星及其卫星欧罗巴(木卫二) 木星及其卫星欧罗巴(木卫二) [45] 的合质量大2倍(地球的318倍),直径142987km。它是气态行星没有实体表面,由90%的氢和10%的氦(原子数之比, 75/25%的质量比)及微量的甲烷、水、氨水和“石头”组成。这与形成整个太阳系的原始的太阳系星云的组成十分相似。木星可能有一个石质的内核,相当于10-15个地球的质量。内核上则是大部分的行星物质集结地,以液态氢的形式存在。液态金属氢由离子化的质子与电子组成(类似于太阳的内部,不过温度低多了)。木星共有67颗木卫。按距离木星中心由近及远的次序为:木卫十六、木卫十四、木卫五、木卫十五、木卫一、木卫二、木卫三、木卫四、木卫十三、木卫六、木卫十、木卫七、木卫十二、木卫十一、木卫八和木卫九。[46] 水星是最接近太阳的行星。水星的半径约为2440公里,在八大行星中是最小的。水星昼夜温差极大,白天摄氏 430 度,晚上约可达零下170 度,是太阳系八大行星中温差最大的一个行星。[47]  水星的外大气层非常稀薄,是由水星表面和太阳风中的原子和离子构成。[48]  科学家确认水星表面含有丰富的碳,认为碳是水星表面呈黑色的原因,水星表面的岩石是由低重量百分比的石墨碳构成。[49] “好奇号”火星探测器在火星表面采集样本 “好奇号”火星探测器在火星表面采集样本 [50] 火星是地球的近邻,是太阳系由内往外数第四颗行星。直径6794km,体积为地球的15%,质量为地球的11%。火星表面是一个荒凉的世界,空气中二氧化碳占了95%。火星大气十分稀薄,密度还不到地球大气的1%,因而根本无法保存热量。这导致火星表面温度极低,很少超过0℃,在夜晚,最低温度则可达到-123℃。火星被称为红色的行星,这是因为它表面布满了氧化物,因而呈现出铁锈红色。其表面的大部分地区都是含有大量的红色氧化物的大沙漠,还有赭色的砾石地和凝固的熔岩流。火星上常常有猛烈的大风,大风扬起沙尘能形成可以覆盖火星全球的特大型沙尘暴。每次沙尘暴可持续数个星期。火星两极的冰冠和火星大气中含有水份。从火星表面获得的探测数据证明,在远古时期,火星曾经有过液态的水,而且水量特别大。[51] 土星是离太阳第六颗行星,直径120536㎞,体积仅次于木星。主要由氢组成,还有少量的氦与微量元素,内部的核心包括岩石和冰,外围由数层金属氢和气体包裹着。地球距离土星13亿公里。土星的引力比地球强2.5倍,能够牵引太阳系内其它行星,使地球处于一个椭圆轨道中运行,并且与太阳保持适当距离,适宜生命繁衍。当土星轨道倾斜20度将使地球轨道比金星轨道更接近太阳,同时,这将导致火星完全离开太阳系。[52]  土星是已知唯一密度小于水的行星,假如能够将土星放入一个巨大的浴池之中,它将可以漂浮起来。土星有一个巨大的磁气圈和一个狂风肆虐的大气层,赤道附近的风速可达1800千米/时。在环绕土星运行的31颗卫星中间,土卫六是最大的一颗,比水星和月球还大,也是太阳系中唯一拥有浓厚大气层的卫星。[53] 天王星是离太阳第七颗行星,51118km。体积约为地球的65倍,在九大行星中仅次于木星和土星。天王星的大气层中83%是氢,15%为氦,2%为甲烷以及少量的乙炔和碳氢化合物。上层大气层的甲烷吸收红光,使天王星呈现蓝绿色。大气在固定纬度集结成云层,类似于木星和土星在纬线上鲜艳的条状色带。天王星云层的平均温度为零下193摄氏度。质量为8.6810±13×10kg,相当于地球质量的14.63倍。密度较小,只有1.24克/立方厘米,为海王星密度值的74.7%。[54] 恒星 恒星 海王星是离太阳的第八颗行星,直径49532千米。海王星绕太阳运转的轨道半径为45亿千米,公转一周需要165年。海王星的直径和天王星类似,质量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大气成分都是氢和氦,内部结构也极为相近,所以说海王星与天王星是一对孪生兄弟。[55]  海王星有太阳系最强烈的风,测量到的时速高达2100公里。海王星云顶的温度是-218 °C,是太阳系最冷的地区之一。海王星核心的温度约为7000 °C,可以和太阳的表面比较。海王星在1846年9月23日被发现,是唯一利用数学预测而非有计划的观测发现的行星。[56] 冥王星,位于海王星以外的柯伊伯带内侧,是柯伊伯带中已知的最大天体。[57]  直径约为2370±20km,是地球直径的18.5%。[58]  2006年8月24日,国际天文学联合会大会24日投票决定,不再将传统九大行星之一的冥王星视为行星,而将其列入“矮行星”。大会通过的决议规定,“行星”指的是围绕太阳运转、自身引力足以克服其刚体力而使天体呈圆球状、能够清除其轨道附近其他物体的天体。在太阳系传统的“九大行星”中,只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合这些要求。冥王星由于其轨道与海王星的轨道相交,不符合新的行星定义,因此被自动降级为“矮行星”。[59]  冥王星的表面温度大概在-238到-228℃之间。冥王星的成份由70%岩石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆盖着一些固体氮以及少量 卫星拍月球经过地球,可见清晰月球背面 卫星拍月球经过地球,可见清晰月球背面 [60] 的固体甲烷和一氧化碳,冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有机物质或是由宇宙射线引发的光化学反应。冥王星的大气层主要由氮和少量的一氧化碳及甲烷组成。大气极其稀薄,地面压强只有少量微帕。[61] 地球是离太阳第三颗行星,是我们人类的家乡,尽管地球是太阳系中一颗普通的行星,但它在许多方面都是独一无二的。比如,它是太阳系中唯一一颗面积大部分被水覆盖的行星,也是目前所知唯一一颗有生命存在的星球。质量M=5.9742 ×10^24 公斤,表面温度:t = - 30 ~ +45。[62]  英国科研人员在《天体生物学》杂志上报告说,如果没有小行星撞击等可能剧烈改变环境的事件发生,地球适宜人类居住的时间还剩约17.5亿年,不过人为造成的气候变化可能缩短这一时间。[63] 彗星是由灰尘和冰块组成的太阳系中的一类小天体,绕日运动。[64]  科学家使用探测器对彗星的化学遗留物进行分析,发现其主要成份为氨、甲烷、硫化氢、氰化氢和甲醛。科学家得出结论称,彗星的气味闻起来像是臭鸡蛋、马尿、酒精和苦杏仁的气味综合。[65-66] “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”。星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石。其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系,这学说,在原有的轨道(或称小天体轨道)上又增加了更多的天体运行轨道。这一模式称每颗行星都沿着一个小轨道作圆周运行,而小轨道又沿着该行星的大轨道绕地球作圆周运动。几百年之后,这一模式的漏洞越来越明显。科学家们又在这个模式上增加了许多轨道,行星就这样沿着一道又一道的轨道作圆周运动。哥白尼想用“现代”(16世纪的)技术来改进托勒密的测量结果,以期取消一些小轨道。在长达近20年的时间里,哥白尼不辞辛劳日夜测量行星的位置,但其测量获得的结果仍然与托勒密的天体运行模式没有多少差别。哥白尼想知道在另一个运行着的行星上观察这些行星的运行情况会是什么样的。基于这种设想,哥白尼萌发了一个念头:假如地球在运行中,那么这些行星的运行看上去会是什么情况呢?这一设想在他脑海里变得清晰起来了。一年里,哥白尼在不同的时间、不同的距离从地球上观察行星,每一个行星的情况都不相同,这是他意识到地球不可能位于星星轨道的中心。经过20年的观测,哥白尼发现唯独太阳的周年变化不明显。这意味着地球和太阳的距离始终没有改变。如果地球不是宇宙的中心,那么宇宙的中心就是太阳。的发现才使牛顿有能力确定运动定律和万有引力定律。哥白尼的日心宇宙体系既然是时代的产物,它就不能不受到时代的限制。反对神学的不彻底性,同时表现在哥白尼的某些观点上,他的体系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一个小的范围内的,具体来说,他的宇宙结构就是今天我们所熟知的太阳系,即以太阳为中心的天体系统。宇宙既然有它的中心,就必须有它的边界,哥白尼虽然否定了托勒玫的“九重天”,但他却保留了一层恒星天,尽管他回避了宇宙是否有限这个问题,但实际上他是相信恒星天球是宇宙的“外壳”,他仍然相信天体只能按照所谓完美的圆形轨道运动,所以哥白尼的宇宙体系,仍然包含着不动的中心天体。但是作为近代自然科学的奠基人,哥白尼的历史功绩是伟大的。确认地球不是宇宙的中心,而是行星之一,从而掀起了一场天文学上根本性的革命,是人类探求客观真理道路上的里程碑。哥白尼的伟大成就,不仅铺平了通向近代天文学的道路,而且开创了整个自然界科学向前迈进的新时代。从哥白尼时代起,脱离教会束缚的自然科学和哲学开始获得飞跃的发展。哥白尼的科学成就,是他所处时代的产物,又转过来推动了时代的发展。顺应时代变化 十五、六世纪的欧洲,正是从封建社会向资本主义社会转变的关键时期,在这一二百年间,社会发生了巨大的变化。14世纪以前的欧洲,到处是四分五裂的小城邦。后来,随着城市工商业的兴起,特别是采矿和冶金业的发展,涌现了许多新兴的大城市,小城邦有了联合起来组成国家的趋势。到 15世纪末叶,在许多国家里都出现了基本上是中央集权的君主政体。当时的波兰不仅有像克拉科夫、波兹南这样的大城市,也有许多手工业兴盛的城市。1526年归并于波兰的华沙已成为一个重要的商业、政治、文化和地理的中心,在16世纪末成了波兰国家的首都。与这种政治经济变革相适应,文化、科学上也开始有所反映。当时,欧洲是“政教合一”,罗马教廷控制了许多国家,圣经被宣布为至高无上的真理,凡是违背圣经的学说,都被斥为“异端邪说”,凡是反对神权统治的人,都被处以火刑。新兴的资产阶级为自己的生存和发展,掀起了一场反对封建制度和教会迷信思想的斗争,出现了人文主义的思潮。他们使用的战斗武器,就是未被神学染污的古希腊的哲学、科学和文艺。这就是震撼欧洲的文艺复兴运动。文艺复兴首先发生于意大利,很快就扩大到波兰及欧洲其他国家。与此同时,商业的活跃也促进了对外贸易的发展。在“黄金”这个符咒的驱使下,许多欧洲冒险者远航非洲、印度及整个远东地区。远洋航行需要丰富的天文和地理知识,从实际中积累起来的观测资料,使人们感到当时流行的“地静天动”的宇宙学说值得怀疑,这就要求人们进一步去探索宇宙的秘密,从而推进了天文学和地理学的发展。1492年,意大利著名的航海家哥伦布发现新大陆,麦哲伦和他的同伴绕地球一周,证明地球是圆形的,使人们开始真正认识地球。[4] 对他国的影响 在教会严密控制下的中世纪,也发生过轰轰烈烈的宗教革命。因为天主教的很多教义不符合圣经的教诲,而加入了太多教皇的个人意志以及各类神学家的自身成果,所以很多信徒开始质疑天主教的教义和组织,发起回归圣经的行动来。捷克的爱国主义者、布拉格大学校长扬·胡斯(1369~1415年)在君士坦丁堡的宗教会议上公开谴责德意志封建主与天主教会对捷克的压迫和剥削。他虽然被反动教会处以火刑,但他的革命活动在社会上引起了强烈的反应。捷克农民在胡斯党人的旗帜下举行起义,这次运动也波及波兰。1517年,在德国,马丁·路德(1483~1546年)反对教会贩卖赎罪符,与罗马教皇公开决裂。1521年,路德又在沃尔姆国会上揭露罗马教廷的罪恶,并提出建立基督教新教的主张。新教的教义得到许多国家的支持,波兰也深受影响。




只要伊朗不断的挑衅以色列,就会获得阿拉伯人的支持,甚至整个伊斯兰国家的支持,而以什叶派为主的伊拉克、叙利亚会更加毫无顾忌的和伊朗走到一起——有了伊朗的核武器保护后,其它国家也不敢对他们发动战争和动用核武。
中东除了伊朗有大国梦外,还有代表曾经阿拉伯帝国的沙特、代表奥斯曼帝国的土耳其,在伊朗拥有核武器以后,他们也必然要拥有核武器!试问:跟着一个拥有核武器的老大安全还是跟着一个没有核武器的老大安全?所以,一旦伊朗拥核以后,沙特和土耳其一定也会要求拥核。一旦沙特拥有了核武器,它还会鸟美国吗?还会怕以色列吗?当伊朗、沙特和土耳其都拥有核武器以后,它们之间爆发战争的可能性就没有了,那时为了争老大的位置只能都去挑衅以色列,以此来吸引中东地区的“小弟”和其它伊斯兰国家的支持。当然了,由于以色列也有核武器,它们也不敢和以色列发生全面的战争。但是,大家想想,伊朗、沙特、土耳其为了拉拢其它国家,不断的支持反以色列的武装,天天发火箭弹、天天骂它,甚至经济制裁以色列,禁止卖石油给以色列、禁止以色列通过苏伊士运河、让其它国家在“和我做生意就别和以色列做生意”之间选择,你说以色列以后还能有好日子吗?现在以色列在美国的支持下,还算强大,但是以色列不可能永远的强大下去吧?如果有一天美国保不了它了,它怎么办?正是因为这层关系,以色列对伊朗的态度非常强硬:一直想要对伊朗的核设施进行直接轰炸,永绝后患!

以色列很想这么做,但是在没有得到美国的支持下,它也不敢冒这个风险。其实,美国也想对伊朗发动攻击,但是又不敢!伊朗的背后有两个大国在支持,而且伊朗是山地地形,美国根本没有任何把握干掉伊朗。二战后,美国打赢的战争都是沙漠(利比亚)和平原(伊拉克)国家,但美国在攻打山地国家的时候都失败了——朝鲜、越南和阿富汗都是山地国家。伊朗是一个山地国家,几乎都是下面的这种地形:
太阳从那些秀丽的公园里收起了它最后一道霞光,月亮从天边升起,温柔的月光泼洒在公园里。我坐在树下,观察着瞬息万变的天空。透过树枝的缝隙,仰望夜空的繁星,就像撒在蓝色地毯上的银币一样,远远地,听得见山涧小溪淙淙的流水声鸟儿在茂密的枝叶间寻找栖所,花儿闭上她困倦的眼睛。在万籁俱寂之中,我听见草地上有轻轻的脚步声,定睛一看,一个青年伴着一个姑娘朝我走来。他们在一棵葱郁的树下坐下来。我能看到他们,但他们却看不到我。那个青年往四周看了看,说道:“坐下吧,亲爱的,请你坐在我的身边。你说吧!笑吧!你的微笑,就是我们未来的象征。你高兴吧!整个时代都为我们欢呼。我的心对我说,对你那颗心的怀疑,对爱情的怀疑是一种罪过,亲爱的!不久,你将成为这银色月光照耀下的广阔世界中的一切财产的主人,成为一座可以和王宫媲美的宫殿的主人。我将驾驭我的骏马,带你周游天下名胜;我将驾驶我的汽车,陪你出入跳舞厅、娱乐场。微笑吧,亲爱的,就像我宝库中的黄金那样微笑吧!你看着我,要像我父亲的珠宝那样地看着我你听着,亲爱的!我要是不向你倾述衷情,我的心就不会安宁。我们将欢度蜜年。我们要带上许多黄金,在瑞士的湖畔,在意大利游览胜地,在尼罗河宫旁,在黎巴嫩翠绿的杉树下度过我们的蜜年。你将与那些贵公主阔夫人相会,你的穿戴一定会引起她们的妒忌。我要给你所有这一切,难道你还不满意吗?啊!你笑得多么甜蜜啊!你微笑就仿佛是我的命运在微笑。”过了一会儿,我看到他俩悠然自得地走着,就像富人的脚践踏穷人的心那样踩着地上的鲜花。他们从我的视野中消失了,而我却在思考着金钱在爱情中的地位。我想,金钱——人类邪恶的根源;爱情——幸福和光明的源泉。我一直在这些思想的舞台上徘徊。突然我发现两个身影从我面前经过,坐在不远的草地上。这是一对从农田那边走过来的青年男女。农田那边有农民的茅舍。在一阵令人伤心的沉默之后,随着一声长叹,我听见从一个肺痨病人的嘴里说出了这样的话:“亲爱的!擦干你的眼泪,至高无上的爱情已经打开了我们的眼界,使我们成了它的崇拜者。是它,给了我们忍耐和刚强。擦干你的眼泪!你要忍耐,既然我们已经结成亲爱的伴侣。为了美好的爱情,我们得忍受贫穷的折磨,不幸的痛苦,离别的辛酸。为了获得一笔在你面前拿得出手的钱财,以此度过今后的岁月,我必须与日月搏斗。亲爱的,上帝就是那至高无上的爱情的体现,他会像接受香烛那样接受我们的哀叹和眼泪,他会给我们适当的报酬。我要同你告别了,亲爱的!我不能等到月光消逝。” 然后,我听见一个亲切而炽热的声音打断了伤感的长嘘短叹。那是一个温柔的少女的声音,这声者倾注所有蕴藏在她肺腑里的热烈的爱情、离别的痛苦和苦尽甘来的快慰:“再见,亲爱的!” 说完,他们便分别了。我坐在那棵树下,这奇妙的宇宙间的许多秘密暴露在我的面前,要我伸出同情之手。 那时,我注视着那沉睡的大自然,久久地注视着。于是,我发现那里有一种无边无际的东西,一种用金钱买不到的东西;一种用秋天凄凉的泪水所不能冲洗掉的东的;一种不能为严冬的苦痛所扼杀的东西;一种在日内瓦湖畔、意大利游览胜地所找不到的东西;它是那样坚强不屈,春来生机勃勃,夏到硕果累累。我在那里看到了爱情。 近来在我的记忆里时常会想起儿时家里的庭院。那是一片门前窗后的空地,那空地在大人们的精心打理下,一天一天地发生着变化,这变化深深地埋在了我幼小的记忆里。时间逝去,年轮更迭。埋藏在内心深处的记忆闸门在不知不觉地开启,童年往事在脑海中流连,在梦中闪现垂髫之年的我随父亲工作变动,从城里搬到了由九幢两层小楼组成的家属院居住,那时家属院座落于城郊,每幢小楼有十户人家,上、下两层为一户,每家门前窗后都有一片空地。刚到那里时,大人们工作之余,捡拾砖头、托坯砌墙、平整空地。刚相识的小伙伴们,不时地跟在大人们的身后,学他们的样子,给他们添乱。大人们看到小伙伴们的模祥,会意地笑着教小伙伴们做一些事情。每家的庭院都有前院和后院,因条件所限院落呈长形。前院面积约有二、三十平,院墙用碎砖砌成,在地面一米以上时修砌成花墙,易于通风。低矮的两家隔墙上修砌了平整的花池,一是为了大人们便于交流,二是为了便于种植花草,美化庭院。用碎砖、土坯砌成的几平米仓房位于院落的一角,里面堆放着许多家用的器具,有铁锹、锄头、镐头等等。屋前通向铁制大门的步道用碎砖平铺而成,两侧步道斜耸的红砖将菜池与步道分开。刷着灰漆的铁制门楼和大门简单而结实。后院是楼后的一片旷野空地,大人们用树枝、劈柴和秸杆围成简易的杖子,形成了一个大大的院落。刚修建的庭院平整空旷,是小伙伴们玩耍、嬉戏的最佳场地,藏猫猫、玩跑城、跳皮筋、弹玻璃球,打纸牌、煽烟盒、踢口袋等等,玩得十分开心,无忧无虑,既天真又活泼。甚至玩到了忘记吃饭,大人们走过来连叫多次小伙伴们才恋恋不舍地停止玩耍、嬉戏,回家吃饭。隔年春天,大人们开始在前院的菜畦上、邻居的隔墙花池里撒下许多不名贵花草,这些花草打理起来很容易,只要埋下花籽,浇上水,它们就会生机勃发。花开时节,花红叶绿,花香满庭,好不让人喜欢。菜池打成畦,分成几块。栽种有青椒、茄子、黄瓜、豆角不同的疏菜。盛夏时节,菜地满池青绿,藤爬满架。洁白的青椒花和桔黄的黄瓜花如天空中的星星,点缀整个菜畦。青绿的黄瓜尚未长大就被小伙伴们摘下,成了口中的美餐。仓房墙边栽种的几棵葡萄树,枝藤延着支架顺势生长,姿意漫开,交织成网。每到枝叶遮住阳光时,小伙伴们就坐在棚架下纳凉、嬉戏,有时也聚在一起学习。在大人们的精心打理下,没几年就果实满棚,一串串绿皮上带有一层白绒的“无核葡萄”;一串串粒大皮厚紫黑的“巨丰葡萄”;一串串形如鸡心红紫色的“鸡心葡萄”,垂挂在棚架上,让人赏心悦目,令人陶醉。后院靠窗近一点的地方栽上一、二棵梨树、或是苹果树,有时地里还会自生出几棵桃树、杏树。每家窗前对应的空地上种些苞米、豆角等大田庄稼。整个庭院有了花草树木,变得生机勃勃。几十年的城市发展变化,昔日城郊早已成为了城市中心地带,家属院已翻建成小区住宅,我家的庭院自然消失的无影无踪。但如今想起我家的庭院,总是让我难己忘怀。因为那个庭院:春天地里泛绿;夏天枝繁叶绿;秋天果实累累;冬天是我们玩耍的天地。它留下了我童年的美好时光。


伊朗不断在往拥核的路上走,美国又不敢打,所以奥巴马只能屈服。2015年,奥巴马同意和伊朗签订《伊核协议》:伊朗放弃制造核武器,美国取消对伊朗的制裁。然而,这件事不仅让以色列非常的不满,也让美国的犹太人非常的不满,他们认为:一旦取消对伊朗的经济制裁,伊朗依靠出售石油经济很快就会发展起来,支持反以色列武装,会给以色列带来巨大的灾难。另外,他们认为《伊核协议》并没有要求伊朗销毁离心机,一旦伊朗强大了,随时可以重新启动,那时就再也没有办法对付伊朗。以后美国可以撤出中东,但是以色列走不了啊!
所以,以色列对待伊朗的态度一直就是只有一个:直接对伊朗动武,摧毁其核设施,一次性的永绝后患。为了逼迫美国,在奥巴马和伊朗签订《伊核协议》之前,美国的犹太人开始到处游说,最终美国国会通过一项决议《伊朗核协议审查法》。


169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today.  别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up.  你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs.  如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see.  只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting.  赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique.  我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself.  我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage.  做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.  未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts.  即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream.  别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted.  没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective.  去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition.  任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what.  开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.  今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'!  一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all.  生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up.  无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。      When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted.  没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective.  去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition.  任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what.  开心一点吧,管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness.  你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving.  人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more.  拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes.  美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows.  朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you.  当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years


《伊朗核协议审查法》里面有一个极其重要的内容:根据《伊朗核协议审查法》,美国总统每90天需要审查一次,评估伊朗是否履行伊核协议中承诺,或者将其命运交给国会。什么意思?奥巴马不是已经签订了《伊核协议》吗?但是,他说了不算,以后美国任何一任总统每隔90天都要对伊朗审核一次,如果美国总统认为伊朗没有遵循伊核协议或认为伊朗不是真心想弃核,那么就随时可以废除这个协议。
这就是特朗普敢撕毁《伊核协议》的主要法理依据。所以,大家要明白一点:特朗普并没有随意的撕毁契约,他是有法律依据的。包括特朗普退出《巴黎协定》也是有依据的。
《巴黎协定》第28条规定:自本协定对一缔约方生效之日起三年后,该缔约方可随时向保存人发出书面通知退出本协定。《巴黎协定》从2015年12月12日生效,2017年6月特朗普宣布退出,到2018年正式完成退出程序——正好是三年!我们公正客观的说:特朗普并不是像有些人所说的那样,随便的违背契约精神,他退出的所有组织都是有法律依据的。其实,这点很容易理解:国家就和人一样,信用很重要,即使是美国也不敢随便的背信弃约。更何况特朗普是一个商人,商人最在意的就是信用!特朗普一意孤行的退出了《伊核协议》,重新对伊朗进行经济制裁后,伊朗在中、俄和欧盟的反复劝解和承诺下(想办法帮伊朗避开美国的制裁),才没有重新启动离心机。然而,这一切被特朗普的冒险行动给打破了!1月3日凌晨,美国的一架无人机在巴格达国际机场对两辆汽车发动袭击,车上7人均被炸死,而死亡的人中包括伊朗革命卫队精锐部队“圣城旅”指挥官卡西姆·苏莱曼尼。
伊朗没有能力,也不敢对美国发动大规模的武装袭击,所以最快捷的方式就是重新启动离心机,加快制造核武器的步伐,以此来威胁美国和以色列。上面我们也说过,如果伊朗核武器制造速度加快了,那么以色列很可能就会军事冒险,直接对伊朗核设施进行轰炸!那时,战争或许就不可避免了!中东,已经处于非常危险的地步了!

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