美国总统特朗普已于当地时间27日签署“香港人权与民主法案”。这是赤裸裸的霸权行为，也是赤裸裸的干涉中国内政。单单就香港问题，解决这个700万人口的小地方，就能力而言，应该是分分钟钟的事，但如果只是把香港当做香港问题去处理，恰恰就入了西方的套。
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香港的毒瘤是立法和司法权力大于行政权力，这个毒瘤必然会要铲除，但如果把香港问题放在全球战略上来看，那就是政治问题了。
而站在当今世界博弈舞台中央的几股势力，也无外乎就这个几家，中国、美国、欧盟和俄罗斯，而博弈到现在，主线依然没有变，都是围绕巴基斯坦和阿富汗的南亚地区相互传递筹码，如果偏离这个主线去分析，往往会越看新闻越迷糊。
在几家博弈过程中，俄罗斯是双方极力拉拢的力量，因之前欧美使劲太狠，把中俄挤在了一起，为了能最终吃掉中国，现阶段是欧美对俄罗斯“威逼利诱”，并以此来瓦解中俄之间的战略互信，而俄罗斯在内外交困的情况下，做出了一些令人很难理解又有损中俄战略互信协调的动作，对于中国而言，也看到了俄罗斯的一些小心思，在动作上也给予了一些回应，但有一点是非常明确的，那就是不管俄罗斯最终倒向谁，中国都有能力有信心直接迎接西方的挑战。
就是特朗普宣布签署“香港人权与民主法案”的当天，也就是11月27日，中俄战略稳定磋商在北京举行。中国外交部副部长马朝旭同俄罗斯副外长里亚布科夫就国际安全形势、多边军控与裁军、中导等深入交换看法，就双方加强战略协作，共同维护全球战略稳定达成广泛共识。双方还就伊朗问题进行了沟通协商。
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27日，俄罗斯副外长谢尔盖·里亚布科夫对记者表示，俄罗斯强烈谴责美国国会通过“香港人权与民主法案”。
这里面有很多细节，大家一定要注意。
第一，中俄战略稳定磋商的级别降到了副部级。
第二，香港乱局快6个月了，这是俄罗斯官方首次对中国的香港问题表态。
第三，11月19日美国参议院通过该法案，11月20日美国国会众议院通过该法案，这个时候，俄罗斯没有任何表态。
第四，11月14日，巴西金砖会议期间，中国对香港问题作出了明确表态，一同出席的普京没有任何表态。
这些细节意味着什么？
大家一定要知道，什么是核心利益，一个国家的主权就是核心利益。当年斯大林想让中国划江而治未得逞，后又一直觊觎东北的长满铁路和大连的深水港口，再到后来的要建立长波电台和联合舰队，都被中国义正言辞地拒绝，因为这是主权问题，没有任何可商量和交换的余地！
169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了，把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢，没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想，那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会，你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡，但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人，就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本，并去倾情出演吧！177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者，不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌，也要优雅的谢幕，感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，见的世面多了，你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能！“不可能”的意思是：“不，可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的，不管你的境遇如何，你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难，都要继续前进，因为只有你放弃的那一刻，你才输了。When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later tell family members, sometimes tearing up at the memory, that once they were married, she could get their 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，见的世面多了，你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。baby boy back. Arthur Schieble died in August 1955, after the adoption was finalized. Just after Christmas that year, Joanne and Abdulfattah were married in St. Philip the Apostle Catholic Church in Green Bay. He got his PhD in international politics the next year, and then they had another child, a girl named Mona. After she and Jandali divorced in 1962, Joanne embarked on a dreamy and peripatetic life that her daughter, who grew up to become the acclaimed novelist Mona Simpson, would capture in her book Anywhere but Here. Because Steve’s adoption had been closed, it would be twenty years before they would all find each other. Steve Jobs knew from an early age that he was adopted. “My parents were very open with me about that,” he recalled. He had a vivid memory of sitting on the lawn of his house, when he was six or seven years old, telling the girl who lived across the street. “So does that mean your real parents didn’t want you?” the girl asked. “Lightning bolts went off in my head,” according to Jobs. “I remember running into the house, crying. And my parents said, ‘No, you have to understand.’ They were very serious and looked me straight in the eye. They said, ‘We specifically picked you out.’ Both of my parents said that and repeated it slowly for me. And they put an emphasis on every word in that sentence.” Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力，才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车，只有不断前进，才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心，最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉，并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用，就是让你快乐加倍，痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时，整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years
虽然目前俄罗斯因外部压力不得已与中国走得近，但这种战略互信从细节来看正在出现裂痕，更令人搞不懂行为还有两个。
第一，在巴西金砖会议期间，俄罗斯总统普京竟然发表了“如果以美国为首的西方要求中国加入战略武器削减条约，那么应该也拉上英国和法国”这样的严重有损中俄战略互信的不当言论。如果按照这个逻辑，英国和法国要是同意呢？是不是意味着中国也就没理由不加入了？这就会造成在舆论上，中国一定会处于孤立的位置。
第二，在印度宣布取消克什米尔自治政策是，俄罗斯居然对印度表示支持。
就是因为这两条，我们看到中俄战略稳定磋商的会议规模降到了副部级，而这份迟到的对香港问题的谴责，则映射出俄罗斯非常矛盾的心理。为了更好地说明这个问题，我们在来看一条非常重要的新闻。
据美国“政治”新闻网站26日报道，法国和德国已联手制订召开为期两年的“欧洲未来大会”计划，旨在全面改革欧盟运作方式，如有需要将修改《欧洲联盟条约》，以使欧盟“更团结、更有力量”。法新社评论称，这一消息表明，尽管法德两国因法国总统马克龙关于北约“脑死亡”的言论有些摩擦，但法德关系依旧稳固。
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这是一条非常重要的新闻，一个由德法为主要力量主导的心的大欧洲格局雏形已经显现！值得特别注意的是，在这个计划中，包含了一份跨国候选人名单制度，也就是说新的欧洲议会选举不再是现有制度下28个成员国（包括英国）各自举行选举产生751名欧洲议会议员。
就在6月24日深夜，欧洲委员会议会大会(PACE)通过决议，允许俄罗斯代表团重返PACE。
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很明显，现在看似一个支离破碎的欧洲，正在酝酿着新的大欧洲计划，而这个计划对于从内心深处一直想融入欧洲的俄罗斯来说，简直就是“上天的恩赐”！
从新闻内容来看，欧洲未来大会的第一阶段计划从2020年2月开始到夏天结束，那么与这个新闻更息息相关的英国脱欧问题，也基本明朗化。
在之前一系列的分析文章中，对英国脱欧早就给出了定性，那就是苏格兰（英国的核力量）和北爱尔兰（北海油田）脱英再次重新融入新欧洲。
那么，问题来了，在大欧洲计划和中俄战略稳定磋商会议以及俄罗斯此时才对香港问题表态之间有什么逻辑关系呢？
为了便于理解，我们再来看三条新闻。
第一，11月27日，法国外交部公开指责中国的新疆问题，德国总理默克尔德国联邦议院发表演讲时也批评了中国的治疆政策，并对香港区议会选举结果表示赞赏。
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第二，11月29日，美国总统特朗普在感恩节当天访问了阿富汗巴格拉姆空军基地，特朗普表示，美国和塔利班一直在进行谈判，他相信塔利班愿意停火。
第三，11月29日消息称，朝鲜劳动党委员长、国务委员会委员长、武装力量最高司令官金正恩观摩了国防科学院进行的超大型火箭炮试射，并对试射结果表示极大满意。
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俄罗斯想融入欧洲，那就意味着立场上就要与欧洲保持一致，而从德法对中国新疆政策和香港问题反反复复地说三道四，严重干涉中国内政的政治动机来看，俄罗斯势必会在融入欧洲和背靠中国之间摇摆不定，这是一道很难抉择的选择题，而恰恰这种选择至少在现阶段还不需要立刻做出，在走实之前，首鼠两端，各捞好处，静观其变，是最佳的选择。
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俄罗斯面临着如下的威逼利诱：
威逼选项有：
第一，欧美对俄罗斯的经济制裁，经济压力较大。
第二，如果俄罗斯做的令西方不满意，乌克兰方向的压力就重一些。
第三，在叙利亚政府军、土耳其、库尔德武装充当担保人角色，不管哪一方出现冲突，俄罗斯都是罪人。
第四，土耳其有可能随时关闭地中海与黑海的交通要道：博斯普鲁斯海峡、达达尼尔海峡！
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第五，对俄罗斯金融系统的全面攻击。
第六，俄罗斯军方内部出现了大规模腐败丑闻，内部张力显现。
利诱选项有：
第一，可以让俄罗斯实现融入大欧洲的梦想。
第二，土耳其、印度对俄罗斯S400和SU57的军购。
第三，如果俄罗斯做的令西方满意，乌克兰方向的压力就轻一些。
第四，美国在阿富汗与塔利班的假会谈和假冲突，向俄罗斯释放邀请俄罗斯充当担保人的角色，以此来诱惑俄罗斯力量重回中亚的假象。
第五，原油价格。
在欧美给俄罗斯威逼利诱的之间，还专为俄罗斯画出了一条生路线：调整南亚政策，即由俄罗斯出面，搭建克什米尔多方会谈，拉中国进来，将南亚问题变成一个似曾相识的中东问题！
在欧美的威逼利诱之下，俄罗斯现阶段还未将步走实，虽然在裁军和克什米尔问题上，做出了伤害中国利益的动作，但至少现阶段还没有必要与中国撕破脸皮，表面上需要维持中俄战略互信，对于中国而言，俄罗斯这种小动作的意图，已经显示出俄罗斯的举棋不定，那就要做出俄罗斯向西方妥协信号的反应，而现阶段，中国也在等待最佳的全面反击的时机，也没必要与俄罗斯撕破脸皮。
所以，我们会看到，中俄战略稳定磋商的会议规模降到了副部级，中国弱化了俄罗斯的这种表现，而俄罗斯为了强化这份战略互信，也终于对香港问题首次做出了官方的表态。
很明显，支持中国，就会得到与欧美谈判的更多让步，让俄罗斯的利益最大化。
大欧洲计划的横空出世，特别是在时间的上确认（2020年2月-夏季），至少预示着两个重要的指标：
第一，欧美财团利益转移到欧洲已经愈加明显。
第二，俄罗斯最终做抉择的时间快到了。
那么，中国当前需要做的是什么呢？毛泽东主席的九字方针：深挖洞，广积粮，不称霸！
这九字方针放在现在来说，那就是对内深化改革，确立顶层设计，加大反腐特别是金融反腐力度，加大科技研发力度，要真正做到独立自主、自力更生，在高科技领域实现弯道超车。对外要加大开放力度，在人民币国际化、争夺大宗商品定价权上发起争夺战，特别是在黄金层面！
在战略层面，以朝鲜为外延跳板，在东北亚方向持续对美国西太平洋安全框架注入变量，形成威胁，另一方面，要做出随时军事解决台湾的姿态，以此来直接摧垮西太安全框架。在俄罗斯方面，只要没有明确站队之前，采用将计就计的原则，在不同层面继续支持俄罗斯，以此来拉高欧美与俄罗斯之间利益交换的成本。在南海方向，只要死死守住，军事控制，无论欧美如何折腾，都逃不过这历史一劫！
历史总是惊人的相似，却又有所不同，没有永远的朋友，只有永远的利益！
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