内在价值
现在让我们来关注一下这个在年报中会经常看见的术语。
内在价值是一个非常重要的概念，它为评估投资和企业的相对吸引力提供了唯一合乎逻辑的方法。内在价值被简单定义为：它是企业在其剩余经营期限内所收到的自由现金流量贴现值。
然而，内在价值的计算却不是那么简单。正如我们的定义所示，内在价值是一个估计值而不是准确值，一旦利率发生改变或者对企业未来现金流的预测做出修正，都会影响内在价值的数值。甚至查理和我，在基于同一系列事实基础上计算内在价值，都不可避免的会出现些许不同。这就是我从来不会告诉你，我评估的内在价值是多少的原因。
同时，我们定期报告公司的账面价值，一个很容易计算但是有局限性的数字。对于我们购买的证券，我们只记录它们的当前价格。然而账面价值有很多不足，其数值可能与我们的内在价值相差甚远。
这种差距甚至会出现南辕北辙。例如，1964年，伯克希尔的每股账面价值为$19.46。然而，这个数字相比当时的内在价值，明显严重夸大了。因为当时公司的所有资源都被捆绑在低利润的纺织工业上。我们的纺织工业资产既不具备持续运营的能力，其清算价值也不等于账面价值。然而今天的伯克希尔，情况却正好相反：我们的账面价值远远低于公司的内在价值，因为我们控股的许多企业的内在价值远远高于其账面价值。
尽管使用账面价值来评估公司，显得不够充分，并被明显低估。但它依然提供了一个粗略的数字来跟踪衡量伯克希尔的内在价值变化。换句话说，任何一段时间内，账面价值的变化幅度很可能与内在价值的变化幅度非常相似。
你可以通过观察大学教育这种形式，来理解账面价值和内在价值之间的差异。比如把缴纳的学费看作是“账面价值”，当然这个成本还应该包括为了上学而放弃的工作收入。
在这个实验中，我们将忽略教育带来的非经济利益的重要性，只关注其经济利益。首先，我们必须估计毕业后能赚到的所有收入，并减去不受教育所获得的所有收入。此时我们会得到一个巨大的差额收入，按照适当的利率，返回到毕业日进行贴现。最后得到的这个结果，就是大学教育的内在经济价值。
一些毕业生发现他们受教育的账面价值超过了内在价值，这意味着无论是谁支付了教育费用，都变成入不敷出的亏本买卖。另一些案例中，教育的内在价值远远的超过了其账面价值，这个结果证明了花钱受教育是明智的选择。从这些案例中可以明显看出，用账面价值来衡量内在价值是毫无意义的。
未完待续
原文：
INTRINSIC VALUE
Now let’s focus on a term that I mentioned earlier and that you will encounter in future annual reports.
Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to evaluating the relative attractiveness ofinvestments and businesses. Intrinsic value can be defined simply: It is the discounted value of the cash that can be taken out of abusiness during its remaining life.
The calculation of intrinsic value, though, is not so simple. As our definition suggests, intrinsic value is an estimate rather thana precise figure, and it is additionally an estimate that must be changed if interest rates move or forecasts of future cash flows arerevised. Two people looking at the same set of facts, moreover – and this would apply even to Charlie and me – will almost inevitablycome up with at least slightly different intrinsic value figures. That is one reason we never give you our estimates of intrinsic value.What our annual reports do supply, though, are the facts that we ourselves use to calculate this value.
Meanwhile, we regularly report our per-share book value, an easily calculable number, though one of limited use. Thelimitations do not arise from our holdings of marketable securities, which are carried on our books at their current prices. Rather theinadequacies of book value have to do with the companies we control, whose values as stated on our books may be far different fromtheir intrinsic values.
The disparity can go in either direction. For example, in 1964 we could state with certitude that Berkshire’s per-share bookvalue was $19.46. However, that figure considerably overstated the company’s intrinsic value, since all of the company’s resourceswere tied up in a sub-profitable textile business. Our textile assets had neither going-concern nor liquidation values equal to theircarrying values. Today, however, Berkshire’s situation is reversed: Now, our book value far understates Berkshire’s intrinsic value, apoint true because many of the businesses we control are worth much more than their carrying value.
Inadequate though they are in telling the story, we give you Berkshire’s book-value figures because they today serve as arough, albeit significantly understated, tracking measure for Berkshire’s intrinsic value. In other words, the percentage change in bookvalue in any given year is likely to be reasonably close to that year’s change in intrinsic value.
You can gain some insight into the differences between book value and intrinsic value by looking at one form of investment, acollege education. Think of the education’s cost as its “book value.” If this cost is to be accurate, it should include the earnings thatwere foregone by the student because he chose college rather than a job.
For this exercise, we will ignore the important non-economic benefits of an education and focus strictly on its economic value.First, we must estimate the earnings that the graduate will receive over his lifetime and subtract from that figure an estimate of what hewould have earned had he lacked his education. That gives us an excess earnings figure, which must then be discounted, at anappropriate interest rate, back to graduation day. The dollar result equals the intrinsic economic value of the education.
Some graduates will find that the book value of their education exceeds its intrinsic value, which means that whoever paid forthe education didn’t get his money’s worth. In other cases, the intrinsic value of an education will far exceed its book value, a resultthat proves capital was wisely deployed. In all cases, what is clear is that book value is meaningless as an indicator of intrinsic value.
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巴菲特官方网站中文版
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一个巴菲特粉丝的成长历程
回复“导航”查看中英文网站对比
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