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作者马丁·雅克系英国剑桥大学高级研究员、中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员，本文中文版转自8月23日《环球时报》，英文版转自8月22日Global Times。西方对发展中国家面临的问题熟视无睹，却在俄乌冲突中投入大量资源，这让发展中国家感到越来越愤怒，也越来越疏远西方。
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金砖国家领导人第十五次会晤在南非约翰内斯堡举行，金砖峰会从未像现在这样受到全球的广泛关注。金砖国家合作机制作为一个整体在世界舞台正式亮相始于2009年，当时西方金融危机刚刚结束，它标志着发展中国家重要性的与日俱增。从一开始，它就代表并表达了一种愿望，即在西方主导的全球秩序之外另辟蹊径。2010年南非的加入不仅提升了金砖国家合作机制的代表性，还扩大了其覆盖范围。
从那时起，金砖国家合作机制在某种程度上一直低调运行，稳步发展，在此过程中不断增加自己的作用，其中最引人注目的是2015年金砖国家新开发银行的成立。现在，它越来越吸引全球的目光。长期原因在于，尽管占全球人口85%的发展中国家在1945年后全球秩序的国际机构中基本被排除在外，但其在现实世界中的重要性在持续增长。20世纪70年代中期，发展中国家GDP仅占全球的1/3，而今天这一数字已达60%。现在，发展中国家正在叩响全球秩序国际机构的大门，要求被认可并被赋予相应权利，其叩门声越来越响亮，也越来越坚定。
然而，此次金砖峰会成为新闻焦点，还有一个更直接的原因，那就是俄乌冲突。在西方的剧本中，假定俄乌冲突将是冷战的翻版，即美国和欧洲联手对抗俄罗斯。西方想当然地认为，发展中国家会站在自己一边。但事实并非如此，大多数发展中国家保持中立。西方对发展中国家面临的问题熟视无睹，却在俄乌冲突中投入大量资源，这让发展中国家感到越来越愤怒，也越来越疏远西方。它们拒绝配合西方对俄罗斯发起的制裁，从而大大削弱了西方对俄制裁的效果。西方被迫勉强承认，至少是部分承认，再也不能忽视发展中国家了，世界不再是二元而是多极的，不能再像过去那样被单方面主导。与此同时，越来越清楚的一点是，西方不会赢得俄乌冲突。我们正处在一个新的阶段。发展中国家拥有更强大的声音，并要求被倾听。这就是为什么金砖峰会如此引人关注。金砖国家合作机制作为发展中国家的主要代表，人们想知道它下一步将做什么。
金砖国家将在约翰内斯堡讨论两项重要议题：2010 年以来首次增加新成员，以及货币政策这一热点问题。在此次金砖峰会召开前几个月，有许多发展中国家表示有兴趣加入金砖国家合作机制。目前已有20多个国家正式申请加入，包括伊朗、沙特阿拉伯、阿根廷、巴基斯坦、越南、孟加拉国和尼日利亚等。这极大地提升了金砖国家合作机制的重要性，极大地增强了其作为发展中国家代表的声誉和地位。在此次金砖峰会上，虽然不太可能有新成员加入，但峰会将审议东道主南非提出的关于加入标准的建议。这显然需要非常机智的外交技巧。东盟的所有决定都是通过协商一致而非投票作出的，而金砖国家合作机制的情况更加多样化，也应尽可能遵循类似原则。
另一个引起广泛关注的议题涉及金砖国家的货币政策。作为美元的潜在竞争对手，金砖国家货币的想法虽然没有被列入议程，但已经引起广泛讨论。金砖国家的组成过于多样化，因此金砖国家货币的想法不具有可行性。只有一个金砖国家成员的货币有可能扮演美元潜在竞争对手的角色，那就是中国，但即使对人民币来说，这个建议也还为时尚早。不过，目前正在积极考虑的是，金砖国家之间的贸易或可以本地货币而非美元进行结算。这是一个非常有价值的想法，有很多关于以这种方式进行贸易结算的讨论，并且已经在有些领域开始实施。这将削弱美元在全球贸易体系中的作用和权力，而美元是全球贸易体系中的最大弊端之一。
金砖国家合作机制的最大优势在于其作为发展中国家代表的能力不断增强，因为其成员的多样性和观点差异，它面临的挑战则是如何在保持凝聚力的同时进行扩员。
以下为英文版
Why the BRICS Summit commands such attention?
By Martin Jacques
Illustration: Xia Qing/GT
A BRICS Summit has never commanded such global interest as its 15th Summit starting in Johannesburg on Tuesday. BRICS was originally launched at a time when the world was waking up to the rise of China, India, Brazil, and Russia. Born in 2009, in the immediate aftermath of the Western financial crisis, it signaled the growing importance of the developing world. From the outset, it represented and articulated a desire for an alternative to the Western-dominated, post-1945 global order. The subsequent addition of South Africa in 2010 enhanced both its representivity and legitimacy. In the period since, BRICS has tended to operate in the background, somewhat in the shadow of the rise of China and India, and the success of Belt and Road Initiative. But BRICS has never gone away. It has steadily grown and in the process broadened its role, most notably with the formation of the New Development Bank in 2015. Now once more it is commanding global attention. The long-term reason is that, even though the developing world - home to 85 percent of the world's population - is largely excluded from the institutions of the post-1945 global order, its importance in the real world has continued to grow relentlessly. The developing world accounts for about 60 percent of global GDP. The developing world is now knocking on the door of the institutions of the global order, demanding to be recognized and enfranchised, its knock getting ever louder and more insistent.There is, however, another more immediate reason why BRICS is very much back in the news and that is the Ukraine war. The Western playbook had assumed that the Ukraine war would be a replay of the Cold War, the US and Europe versus Russia. The West took the developing world for granted and assumed it would side with the West. It didn't. Most developing countries remained non-aligned. And they grew increasingly angry and alienated by the way in which the West studiously ignored their problems and held the Ukraine war to be of far greater importance. They refused to impose Western-inspired sanctions on Russia, thereby considerably undermining their effectiveness. The West has been grudgingly forced to recognize, at least partially, that the developing world could no longer be ignored, that the world was not binary but multi-polar, and could not be bossed in the manner of old. In the meantime, it is becoming ever clearer that the West will not win the war in Ukraine. We are in new times. The developing world has a stronger voice and is demanding that it be listened to. This is why the BRICS Summit is now commanding such attention. As the main voice of the developing world, people want to know what BRICS will do next. In the event, BRICS is discussing two of its most important ever reforms in Johannesburg: the addition of new members, the first since 2010, and the hot-button issue of currency policy. The months leading up to the summit have seen a dramatic number of developing countries expressing interest in becoming members of BRICS. 23 countries have applied to join, including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Argentina, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Nigeria. This interest has greatly boosted the importance and legitimacy of BRICS, greatly enhancing its reputation and status as the representative of the developing world. There are unlikely to be any new additions to its membership at the summit: rather it will consider proposals from South Africa, the chair of the summit, about what the possible criteria for expansion might be. This obviously requires the most tactful diplomacy. Rather like the 10 members of ASEAN, which reach all their decisions by consensus rather than voting, BRICS, given its even greater diversity, should, as far as possible, operate by the same principle. The other subject which has attracted widespread interest concerns BRICS's currency policy. The idea of a BRICS currency - as a potential rival to the dollar - has been widely discussed, although it is not on the agenda. The fact is, however, that it is almost certainly a non-starter. The membership of BRICS is too imbalanced and too diverse for it to be workable. There is only one member of BRICS that could potentially play such a role and that is China, but even for yuan such a suggestion would still be premature. What is under active consideration, however, is the idea of trade between BRICS being settled in local currencies rather than the US dollar. This has great merit; there is already much talk about trade being settled in this way and it is already beginning to take place. This would have the effect of weakening the role and power of the dollar, which is one of the biggest inequities in the global trading system.The great strength of BRICS is its growing ability to act as an overarching representative of the developing world. Its weakness is its diverse composition and the fact that the views of its members vary considerable. The challenge facing BRICS will be its ability to widen its membership while at the same time maintaining its cohesion.
// 人大重阳
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RDCY
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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